The Impact of Agro-Export Growth on Municipal Social Development: A Comparative Analysis of Municipalities in Sonora, Jalisco, and Baja California

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between the growth of agricultural export production and municipal socioeconomic indicators in 189 municipalities of Sonora, Jalisco and Baja California between 2010 and 2020. A difference-in-differences method without covariates was applied to compare municipalities with high and low agro-export growth, using eleven indicators from INEGI, CONEVAL and SIAP. Results indicate that municipalities with higher dynamism achieved more significant reductions in extreme poverty, improvements in the Human Development Index, decreases in income inequality, and greater access to durable goods. In contrast, no significant differences were found in overall poverty, food security, or non-agricultural productivity. The study’s limitations include its exploratory design, which identifies associations but not causality, and its restricted geographic scope.  Findings highlight the conditional nature of agro-export growth, which requires labor, institutional, and environmental frameworks to translate into sustainable social development.