From the Latin American Extraordinary Cathedra “Jose Consuegra Higgins”, message from the Mexican Academy of Economic Sciences, A. C. to the scientific community of the continent

Abstract

As I occupy for the second time the "José Consuegra Higgins" Extraordinary Latin American Chair, I have the honor of reflecting before my colleagues and friends of the continent in terms of the fact that the behavior of the causal variables in the dynamics of a capitalist economy of regional and even national scope is very difficult to foresee, not only for the long term but even for the medium and short term. The erraticity that prevents forecasting is the origin of the continuous and sometimes staggering economic instability that characterizes contemporary capitalism. It is not easy to find the real background and undercurrents of such instability.
When causal variables are subjected to measurement, the most rigorous projections not only admit a considerable margin of error but, by nature, are simple possibilities of human behavior at the scale of economic agents, which are still sifted and thinned by probability. This is why it is rightly argued that the laws of economics are stochastic and tendential in nature.