Per capita GDP growth in Mexico: analysis of convergence and spatial dependence, 2003-2013

Abstract

This paper analyzes the growth of the per capita product of the states of Mexico through the analysis of data exploration and spatial autocorrelation during the period 2003-2013. The objective of the work is to analyze if there is spatial dependence in the growth rate of GDP per capita in the states of Mexico. In particular, it is verified if the states have converged during this period of time, if this is the case, the spatial autocorrelation between the states is supported. Data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) are used, the results are estimated, using the sigma and beta-convergence approach and a spatial regression model. The first model confirms that the relationship between the growth rate of the per capita product and the initial per capita product are positive, while the spatial model shows that the growth of the per capita product depends on factors specific to the states.