Economic growth and crisis in Mexico, 1970-2009. A sexennial analysis

Abstract

The objective of this research was to analyze the evolution of the Mexican economy through the behavior of Mexico's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the period 1970-2009. Ordinary least squares was used to estimate the relationship between GDP, oil and non-oil exports. The Mexican economy presented a six-year economic cycle. The "valley" was recorded at the beginning and end of each six-year term, while the "boom" was recorded in the second and third years. López Portillo had the highest average annual growth of 6.57%. A 1% increase in oil exports generated a 0.20% increase in GDP. The current economic crisis is reflected by a decrease in GDP, from 3.3% growth in 2007 to 1.8% in 2008, and -6.5% for 2009, coupled with unemployment of 6.4% in September 2009.